Georgia Southern’s carries with Max Johnson and without Max Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Southern was 3.2 carries under with Max Johnson and 0.5 carries over without Max Johnson over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 27.3 and 34.0, a difference of 6.7. All 4 home games were with Max Johnson. All 4 nonconference games were with Max Johnson.
Max Johnson, quarterback: 1,928 passing yards, 279 pass attempts and 190 completions in 8 of those 25 games, 13% of Georgia Southern’s carries in those games.
One game without Max Johnson is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Max Johnson
−3.2
without Max Johnson
+0.5
-100
plain
27.3
34.0
2030
The games
with Max Johnsonwithout Max Johnson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Troy | L | 20 | 34.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 38 | 35.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Appalachian State | W | 40 | 33.9 | |
| Dec 19, 2024 | vs Sam Houston (neutral) | L | 42 | 33.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | 21 | 34.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ USC | L | 33 | 31.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 40 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Maine | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | 25 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | L | 34 | 37.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 40 | 36.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | L | 40 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @Appalachian State | W | 37 | 33.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsCoastal Carolina | W | 37 | 36.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Old Dominion | L | 19 | 37.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Marshall | W | 45 | 34.4 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vsAppalachian State (neutral) | W | 37 | 33.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | 18 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Jacksonville State | L | 39 | 30.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 26 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Coastal Carolina | W | 25 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsJames Madison | L | 25 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @Old Dominion | W | 34 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsAppalachian State | W | 30 | 32.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Charleston Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Max Johnson nor without Max Johnson: Max Johnson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.