Georgia Southern’s carries with David Mbadinga and without David Mbadinga
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Georgia Southern was 3.2 carries under with David Mbadinga and 0.5 carries over without David Mbadinga in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 27.3 and 34.0, a difference of 6.7. All 4 home games were with David Mbadinga. All 4 nonconference games were with David Mbadinga. All 4 first-half games were with David Mbadinga.
David Mbadinga, running back: 239 rushing yards, 44 carries and 11 receptions in 7 games this season, 23% of Georgia Southern’s carries in those games.
One game without David Mbadinga is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with David Mbadinga
−3.2
without David Mbadinga
+0.5
-100
plain
27.3
34.0
2030
The games
with David Mbadingawithout David Mbadinga
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsCCharleston Southern | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | 18 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Jacksonville State | L | 39 | 30.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Houston | L | 26 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 25 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 25 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 34 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 30 | 32.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Charleston Southern has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.