Fresno State’s third-down conversion rate with Rayshon Luke and without Rayshon Luke
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Fresno State was 3.1 percentage points under with Rayshon Luke and 17.2 percentage points over without Rayshon Luke over its last 25 games, 18 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.1% and 50.0%, a difference of 12.9%. All 10 away games were with Rayshon Luke. All 6 day games were with Rayshon Luke. All 19 unranked opponents were with Rayshon Luke.
Rayshon Luke, running back: 1,081 rushing yards, 172 carries and 51 receptions in 20 of those 25 games.
One game without Rayshon Luke is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Rayshon Luke
−3.1%
without Rayshon Luke
+17.2%
-10%0%10%
plain
37.1%
50.0%
20%40%60%80%
The games
with Rayshon Lukewithout Rayshon Luke
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Air Force | L | 25.0% | 36.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Colorado State | W | 42.9% | 37.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ UCLA | L | 35.7% | 38.9% | |
| Dec 23, 2024 | vs Northern Illinois (neutral) | L | 30.0% | 32.0% | |
| Aug 23, 2025 | @ Kansas | L | 46.7% | 34.8% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Georgia Southern | W | 60.0% | 41.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oregon State | W | 12.5% | 31.1% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Southern | W | 80.0% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Hawaii | W | 50.0% | 34.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 23.1% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 10, 2025 | @Colorado State | L | 33.3% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs San Diego State | L | 31.3% | 32.4% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Boise State | W | 31.3% | 30.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 31.3% | 33.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Utah State | L | 21.4% | 36.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 25.0% | 34.8% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 43.3% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ USC | L | 20.0% | 38.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @San Jose State | W | 31.3% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 46.2% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 35.3% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsBoise State | L | 50.0% | 32.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @San Diego State | L | 30.8% | 42.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsOregon State | W | 45.5% | 37.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Southern, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 21 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Rayshon Luke nor without Rayshon Luke: Rayshon Luke had no game for the team that season, and sit out.