Fresno State’s third-down conversion rate with Rayshon Luke and without Rayshon Luke
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Fresno State was 4.4 percentage points under with Rayshon Luke and 17.2 percentage points over without Rayshon Luke in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.0% and 50.0%, a difference of 13.0%. All 4 away games were with Rayshon Luke. All 6 unranked opponents were with Rayshon Luke. All 4 nonconference games were with Rayshon Luke.
Rayshon Luke, running back: 377 rushing yards, 61 carries and 15 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Rayshon Luke is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Rayshon Luke
−4.4%
without Rayshon Luke
+17.2%
-10%0%10%
plain
37.0%
50.0%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Rayshon Lukewithout Rayshon Luke
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ USC | L | 20.0% | 38.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ San Jose State | W | 31.3% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 46.2% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 35.3% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 50.0% | 32.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 30.8% | 42.9% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Oregon State | W | 45.5% | 37.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Sacramento State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.