Fresno State’s points with Rayshon Luke and without Rayshon Luke
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Fresno State was 1.3 points under with Rayshon Luke and 7.4 points over without Rayshon Luke in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 28.6 and 31.0, a difference of 2.4. Expected was 2.8 points higher with Rayshon Luke than without Rayshon Luke. All 4 away games were with Rayshon Luke. All 6 unranked opponents were with Rayshon Luke. All 4 nonconference games were with Rayshon Luke.
Rayshon Luke, running back: 377 rushing yards, 61 carries and 15 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Rayshon Luke is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Rayshon Luke
−1.3
without Rayshon Luke
+7.4
-200
plain
28.6
31.0
02040
The games
with Rayshon Lukewithout Rayshon Luke
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ USC | L | 0 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 49 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ San Jose State | W | 26 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 38 | 31.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Washington State | W | 26 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Boise State | L | 31 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ San Diego State | L | 23 | 29.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Oregon State | W | 38 | 23.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Sacramento State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.