East Carolina’s total yards with Michael Allen and without Michael Allen
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, East Carolina was 26.2 yards under with Michael Allen and 63.5 yards over without Michael Allen over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 345.9 and 421.0, a difference of 75.1. All 4 home games were with Michael Allen. All 5 day games were with Michael Allen. All 4 nonconference games were with Michael Allen.
Michael Allen, running back: 117 rushing yards, 37 carries and 9 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Michael Allen is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
total yards a game over expected
with Michael Allen
−26.2
without Michael Allen
+63.5
-50050
plain
345.9
421.0
200300400
The games
with Michael Allenwithout Michael Allen
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | @ Tulsa | W | 536 | 502.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ North Texas | W | 554 | 450.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Navy | L | 350 | 405.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs NC State (neutral) | W | 474 | 373.9 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @NC State | L | 436 | 429.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsCCampbell | W | 535 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 499 | 491.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs BYU | L | 404 | 372.7 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | vs Army | W | 431 | 364.7 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 340 | 412.3 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vsTulsa | W | 568 | 454.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 615 | 428.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 410 | 523.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Memphis | W | 454 | 407.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 401 | 411.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 513 | 464.7 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh (neutral) | W | 250 | 393.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 189 | 279.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | L | 417 | 381.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 280 | 336.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 489 | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 376 | 377.1 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 317 | 295.3 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Memphis | L | 421 | 357.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsTemple | W | 353 | 418.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Carolina Central has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Michael Allen nor without Michael Allen: Michael Allen had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.