East Carolina’s third-down conversion rate with Michael Allen and without Michael Allen
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, East Carolina was 10.3 percentage points under with Michael Allen and 3.1 percentage points over without Michael Allen over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 29.5% and 29.4%, a difference of 0.1%. Expected was 8.6 percentage points higher with Michael Allen than without Michael Allen. All 4 home games were with Michael Allen. All 5 day games were with Michael Allen. All 4 nonconference games were with Michael Allen.
Michael Allen, running back: 117 rushing yards, 37 carries and 9 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Michael Allen is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Michael Allen
−10.3%
without Michael Allen
+3.1%
-20%0%
plain
29.5%
29.4%
0%20%40%
The games
with Michael Allenwithout Michael Allen
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | @ Tulsa | W | 35.7% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ North Texas | W | 46.7% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Navy | L | 26.7% | 43.0% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs NC State (neutral) | W | 75.0% | 33.9% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @NC State | L | 37.5% | 44.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsCCampbell | W | 76.5% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 56.3% | 41.8% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs BYU | L | 40.0% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | vs Army | W | 58.3% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 52.6% | 40.6% | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vsTulsa | W | 50.0% | 44.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 50.0% | 41.0% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 37.5% | 45.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Memphis | W | 50.0% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 14.3% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 70.6% | 43.2% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh (neutral) | W | 13.3% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 0.0% | 30.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | L | 15.4% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 23.1% | 30.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 31.3% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 45.0% | 33.7% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Memphis | L | 29.4% | 26.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsTemple | W | 33.3% | 42.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Carolina Central has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Michael Allen nor without Michael Allen: Michael Allen had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.