East Carolina’s third-down conversion rate with Michael Allen and without Michael Allen
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, East Carolina was 10.3 percentage points under with Michael Allen and 3.1 percentage points over without Michael Allen in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 29.5% and 29.4%, a difference of 0.1%. Expected was 8.6 percentage points higher with Michael Allen than without Michael Allen. All 4 home games were with Michael Allen. All 5 day games were with Michael Allen. All 4 nonconference games were with Michael Allen.
Michael Allen, running back: 117 rushing yards, 37 carries and 9 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Michael Allen is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Michael Allen
−10.3%
without Michael Allen
+3.1%
-20%0%
plain
29.5%
29.4%
0%20%40%
The games
with Michael Allenwithout Michael Allen
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 0.0% | 30.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | L | 15.4% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 23.1% | 30.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 31.3% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 45.0% | 33.7% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 29.4% | 26.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Temple | W | 33.3% | 42.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Carolina Central has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.