East Carolina’s third-down conversion rate with Emory Williams and without Emory Williams
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, East Carolina was 2.0 percentage points over with Emory Williams and 12.5 percentage points under without Emory Williams in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 44.9% and 20.2%, a difference of 24.6%.
Emory Williams, quarterback: 716 passing yards, 117 pass attempts and 73 completions in 6 games this season.
3 games with Emory Williams is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +14.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Emory Williams vs without Emory Williams is about what you’d expect.
A +24.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Emory Williams vs without Emory Williams is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Emory Williams and it comes up 9 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 0.0% | 30.0% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | L | 15.4% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 23.1% | 30.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 31.3% | 38.6% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 45.0% | 33.7% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ Memphis | L | 29.4% | 26.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Temple | W | 33.3% | 42.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Carolina Central has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.