East Carolina’s points of margin with Michael Allen and without Michael Allen
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, East Carolina was 3.1 points under with Michael Allen and 11.1 points over without Michael Allen over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 0.9 and -7.0, a difference of 7.9. Expected was 16.7 points higher with Michael Allen than without Michael Allen. All 4 home games were with Michael Allen. All 5 day games were with Michael Allen. All 4 nonconference games were with Michael Allen.
Michael Allen, running back: 117 rushing yards, 37 carries and 9 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Michael Allen is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Michael Allen
−3.1
without Michael Allen
+11.1
-10010
plain
0.9
-7.0
-20020
The games
with Michael Allenwithout Michael Allen
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | @ Tulsa | W | 7 | 20.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ North Texas | W | 12 | -4.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Navy | L | -14 | -7.3 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs NC State (neutral) | W | 5 | -6.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @NC State | L | -7 | -3.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsCCampbell | W | 53 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 38 | 15.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs BYU | L | -21 | -4.4 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | vs Army | W | 22 | 6.6 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | -7 | 0.5 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vsTulsa | W | 14 | 23.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 31 | 6.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 26 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Memphis | W | 4 | 6.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | -34 | 6.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 39 | 12.4 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh (neutral) | W | 6 | -5.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | -38 | -36.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | L | -3 | 7.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 3 | 7.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 33 | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 16 | 5.5 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ UAB | L | -13 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Memphis | L | -7 | -18.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsTemple | W | 8 | 5.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- North Carolina Central has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Michael Allen nor without Michael Allen: Michael Allen had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.