East Carolina’s points of margin with Emory Williams and without Emory Williams
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, East Carolina was 2.2 points under with Emory Williams and 0.6 points under without Emory Williams over its last 25 games, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 12.0 and -7.4, a difference of 19.4.
Emory Williams, quarterback: 716 passing yards, 117 pass attempts and 73 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
3 games with Emory Williams is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Emory Williams
−2.2
without Emory Williams
−0.6
-10010
A −1.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Emory Williams vs without Emory Williams is about what you’d expect.
plain
12.0
-7.4
-20020
A +19.4 difference in points of margin with Emory Williams vs without Emory Williams is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Emory Williamswithout Emory Williams
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | @ Tulsa | W | 7 | 20.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ North Texas | W | 12 | -4.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Navy | L | -14 | -7.3 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs NC State (neutral) | W | 5 | -6.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @NC State | L | -7 | -3.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsCCampbell | W | 53 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 38 | 15.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs BYU | L | -21 | -4.4 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | vs Army | W | 22 | 6.6 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | -7 | 0.5 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vsTulsa | W | 14 | 23.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 31 | 6.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 26 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Memphis | W | 4 | 6.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | -34 | 6.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 39 | 12.4 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh (neutral) | W | 6 | -5.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | -38 | -36.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | L | -3 | 7.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 3 | 7.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 33 | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 16 | 5.5 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ UAB | L | -13 | 1.9 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Memphis | L | -7 | -18.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsTemple | W | 8 | 5.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Carolina Central has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Emory Williams nor without Emory Williams: Emory Williams had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.