East Carolina’s points allowed with Mitch Griffis and without Mitch Griffis
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, East Carolina was 1.0 points over with Mitch Griffis and 2.4 points under without Mitch Griffis over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 28.4 and 17.0, a difference of 11.4.
Mitch Griffis, quarterback: 753 passing yards, 126 pass attempts and 69 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
3 games without Mitch Griffis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Mitch Griffis
+1.0
without Mitch Griffis
−2.4
-100
A +3.4 difference in points allowed over expected with Mitch Griffis vs without Mitch Griffis is about what you’d expect.
plain
28.4
17.0
10203040
A +11.4 difference in points allowed with Mitch Griffis vs without Mitch Griffis is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Mitch Griffiswithout Mitch Griffis
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2024 | @ Tulsa | W | 31 | 22.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ North Texas | W | 28 | 35.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Navy | L | 34 | 31.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs NC State (neutral) | W | 21 | 34.8 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @NC State | L | 24 | 29.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsCCampbell | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Coastal Carolina | W | 0 | 22.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs BYU | L | 34 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 25, 2025 | vs Army | W | 6 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 26 | 23.3 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vsTulsa | W | 27 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 14 | 23.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Charlotte | W | 22 | 7.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Memphis | W | 27 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 58 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 3 | 26.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Pittsburgh (neutral) | W | 17 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Alabama | L | 48 | 41.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | L | 27 | 19.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Old Dominion | W | 17 | 19.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 9 | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Rice | W | 12 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | @ UAB | L | 30 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @Memphis | L | 41 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsTemple | W | 9 | 23.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Carolina Central has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Mitch Griffis nor without Mitch Griffis: Mitch Griffis had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.