Colorado’s third-down conversion rate with Micah Welch and without Micah Welch
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado was 1.5 percentage points under with Micah Welch and 3.9 percentage points under without Micah Welch over its last 25 games, 20 games against 4. The plain averages are 38.2% and 32.8%, a difference of 5.5%. Both neutral-site games were with Micah Welch. All 5 ranked opponents were with Micah Welch. All 7 nonconference games were with Micah Welch.
Micah Welch, running back: 669 rushing yards, 158 carries and 18 receptions in 21 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +2.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Micah Welch vs without Micah Welch is about what you’d expect.
A +5.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Micah Welch vs without Micah Welch is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Texas Tech | W | 15.4% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Utah | W | 27.3% | 33.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Kansas (neutral) | L | 42.9% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 41.7% | 43.7% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs BYU (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 40.7% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 38.5% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 43.8% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @ Houston | L | 28.6% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 50.0% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsBYU | L | 33.3% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ TCU | L | 64.3% | 34.3% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Iowa State | W | 46.7% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Utah | L | 18.8% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Arizona | L | 38.9% | 37.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ West Virginia | L | 29.4% | 39.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Arizona State | L | 27.8% | 39.4% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | 47.1% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | W | 41.2% | 42.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWeber State | W | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 33.3% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 20.0% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsTexas Tech | L | 37.5% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUtah | L | 40.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 38.5% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsKansas State | W | 50.0% | 36.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Weber State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.