Colorado’s third-down conversion rate with Micah Welch and since Micah Welch’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado was 4.2 percentage points under with Micah Welch and 6.4 percentage points over since Micah Welch’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 36.4% and 44.2%, a difference of 7.9%. Both ranked opponents were with Micah Welch. All 3 nonconference games were with Micah Welch. All 4 first-half games were with Micah Welch.
Micah Welch, running back: 220 rushing yards, 43 carries and 4 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Micah Welch’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −10.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Micah Welch vs since Micah Welch’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −7.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Micah Welch vs since Micah Welch’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 41.2% | 42.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWeber State | W | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 33.3% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 20.0% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | L | 37.5% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Utah | L | 40.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 38.5% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas State | W | 50.0% | 36.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Weber State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.