Colorado’s third-down conversion rate with Julian Lewis and without Julian Lewis
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado was 7.5 percentage points under with Julian Lewis and 1.4 percentage points over without Julian Lewis over its last 25 games, 4 games against 15. The plain averages are 35.6% and 39.7%, a difference of 4.1%. All 4 ranked opponents were without Julian Lewis.
Julian Lewis, quarterback: 1,322 passing yards, 189 pass attempts and 113 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Julian Lewis
−7.5%
without Julian Lewis
+1.4%
0%20%
A −8.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Julian Lewis vs without Julian Lewis is about what you’d expect.
plain
35.6%
39.7%
20%40%60%
A −4.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Julian Lewis vs without Julian Lewis is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Julian Lewiswithout Julian Lewis
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Texas Tech | W | 15.4% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Utah | W | 27.3% | 33.1% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Kansas (neutral) | L | 42.9% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 41.7% | 43.7% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs BYU (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 40.7% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 38.5% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 43.8% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @ Houston | L | 28.6% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 50.0% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsBYU | L | 33.3% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ TCU | L | 64.3% | 34.3% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Iowa State | W | 46.7% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Utah | L | 18.8% | 38.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Arizona | L | 38.9% | 37.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ West Virginia | L | 29.4% | 39.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Arizona State | L | 27.8% | 39.4% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | 47.1% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | W | 41.2% | 42.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWeber State | W | 46.2% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 33.3% | 40.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 20.0% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsTexas Tech | L | 37.5% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUtah | L | 40.0% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 38.5% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsKansas State | W | 50.0% | 36.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Weber State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Julian Lewis nor without Julian Lewis: Julian Lewis had no game for the team that season, and sit out.