Colorado’s points of margin with Isaac Wilson and without Isaac Wilson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado was 0.3 points over with Isaac Wilson and 11.5 points under without Isaac Wilson in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are -13.0 and -0.7, a difference of 12.3. Both ranked opponents were with Isaac Wilson. All 5 conference games were with Isaac Wilson. All 3 nonconference games were without Isaac Wilson.
Isaac Wilson, quarterback: 1,164 passing yards, 149 pass attempts and 91 completions in 6 games this season.
3 games without Isaac Wilson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +11.8 difference in points of margin over expected with Isaac Wilson vs without Isaac Wilson is about what you’d expect.
A −12.3 difference in points of margin with Isaac Wilson vs without Isaac Wilson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 1 | 3.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWeber State | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | -34 | -13.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | -10 | -21.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | L | -22 | -8.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Utah | L | -3 | -22.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | -33 | -11.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas State | W | 3 | -1.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Weber State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.