Colorado’s points allowed with Micah Welch and since Micah Welch’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado was 3.5 points under with Micah Welch and 13.9 points over since Micah Welch’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 25.7 and 40.5, a difference of 14.8. Both ranked opponents were with Micah Welch. All 3 nonconference games were with Micah Welch. All 4 first-half games were with Micah Welch.
Micah Welch, running back: 220 rushing yards, 43 carries and 4 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Micah Welch’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −17.4 difference in points allowed over expected with Micah Welch vs since Micah Welch’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Micah Welch and it comes up 13 times in 100.
A −14.8 difference in points allowed with Micah Welch vs since Micah Welch’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Micah Welch and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 13 | 26.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWeber State | W | 21 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 41 | 29.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 23 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | L | 29 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Utah | L | 27 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 57 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas State | W | 24 | 22.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Weber State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.