Colorado’s points allowed with Julian Lewis and without Julian Lewis
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado was 4.5 points over with Julian Lewis and 0.2 points over without Julian Lewis over its last 25 games, 4 games against 15. The plain averages are 29.2 and 30.3, a difference of 1.1. Expected was 3.3 points lower with Julian Lewis than without Julian Lewis. All 4 ranked opponents were without Julian Lewis.
Julian Lewis, quarterback: 1,322 passing yards, 189 pass attempts and 113 completions in 8 of those 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Julian Lewis
+4.5
without Julian Lewis
+0.2
020
A +4.2 difference in points allowed over expected with Julian Lewis vs without Julian Lewis is about what you’d expect.
plain
29.2
30.3
2040
A −1.1 difference in points allowed with Julian Lewis vs without Julian Lewis is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Julian Lewiswithout Julian Lewis
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Texas Tech | W | 27 | 31.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Utah | W | 24 | 16.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Kansas (neutral) | L | 37 | 25.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 0 | 24.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs BYU (neutral) | L | 36 | 25.5 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 27 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 7 | 25.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @ Houston | L | 36 | 32.6 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 20 | 13.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsBYU | L | 24 | 33.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ TCU | L | 35 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Iowa State | W | 17 | 29.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Utah | L | 53 | 40.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Arizona | L | 52 | 27.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ West Virginia | L | 29 | 27.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Arizona State | L | 42 | 24.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | 24 | 35.4 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | W | 13 | 26.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWeber State | W | 21 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 41 | 29.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 23 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsTexas Tech | L | 29 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUtah | L | 27 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 57 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsKansas State | W | 24 | 22.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Weber State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Julian Lewis nor without Julian Lewis: Julian Lewis had no game for the team that season, and sit out.