Colorado’s carries with Micah Welch and since Micah Welch’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado was 0.6 carries over with Micah Welch and 1.2 carries under since Micah Welch’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 35.3 and 36.0, a difference of 0.7. Expected was 2.8 carries lower with Micah Welch than since Micah Welch’s last game. Both ranked opponents were with Micah Welch. All 3 nonconference games were with Micah Welch. All 4 first-half games were with Micah Welch.
Micah Welch, running back: 220 rushing yards, 43 carries and 4 receptions in 6 games this season, 20% of Colorado’s carries in those games.
2 games since Micah Welch’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +1.8 difference in carries over expected with Micah Welch vs since Micah Welch’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −0.7 difference in carries with Micah Welch vs since Micah Welch’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 47 | 38.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWeber State | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 33 | 33.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 39 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | L | 32 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Utah | L | 24 | 30.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 30 | 38.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas State | W | 42 | 35.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Weber State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.