Colorado’s carries with Julian Lewis and since Julian Lewis’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado was 4.1 carries over with Julian Lewis and 1.5 carries under since Julian Lewis’ last game in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 39.0 and 33.4, a difference of 5.6. Both ranked opponents were since Julian Lewis’ last game. All 5 conference games were since Julian Lewis’ last game. All 3 nonconference games were with Julian Lewis.
Julian Lewis, quarterback: 733 passing yards, 95 pass attempts and 61 completions in 4 games this season, 10% of Colorado’s carries in those games.
3 games with Julian Lewis is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +5.6 difference in carries over expected with Julian Lewis vs since Julian Lewis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +5.6 difference in carries with Julian Lewis vs since Julian Lewis’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 47 | 38.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWeber State | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 33 | 33.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 39 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Texas Tech | L | 32 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Utah | L | 24 | 30.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 30 | 38.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Kansas State | W | 42 | 35.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Weber State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.