Colorado’s carries with Isaac Wilson and without Isaac Wilson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Colorado was 1.5 carries under with Isaac Wilson and 4.1 carries over without Isaac Wilson over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 33.4 and 39.0, a difference of 5.6. Both ranked opponents were with Isaac Wilson. All 5 conference games were with Isaac Wilson. All 3 nonconference games were without Isaac Wilson.
Isaac Wilson, quarterback: 1,164 passing yards, 149 pass attempts and 91 completions in 6 of those 25 games, 24% of Colorado’s carries in those games.
3 games without Isaac Wilson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −5.6 difference in carries over expected with Isaac Wilson vs without Isaac Wilson is about what you’d expect.
A −5.6 difference in carries with Isaac Wilson vs without Isaac Wilson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Texas Tech | W | 26 | 28.5 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Utah | W | 20 | 28.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Kansas (neutral) | L | 12 | 29.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 29 | 33.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs BYU (neutral) | L | 19 | 28.2 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Georgia Tech | L | 31 | 35.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Delaware | W | 36 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2025 | @ Houston | L | 23 | 36.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Wyoming | W | 31 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsBYU | L | 37 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ TCU | L | 35 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Iowa State | W | 36 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Utah | L | 38 | 37.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Arizona | L | 42 | 36.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ West Virginia | L | 38 | 36.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Arizona State | L | 30 | 32.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Kansas State | L | 47 | 36.4 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | @Georgia Tech | W | 47 | 38.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsWWeber State | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 33 | 33.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Baylor | L | 39 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsTexas Tech | L | 32 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUtah | L | 24 | 30.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 30 | 38.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsKansas State | W | 42 | 35.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Weber State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Isaac Wilson nor without Isaac Wilson: Isaac Wilson had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.