Charlotte’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Charlotte was 6.5 points under at home and 0.1 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 21.8 and 19.5, a difference of 2.3.
points a game over expected
at home
−6.5
away
−0.1
-1001020
A −6.4 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
21.8
19.5
10203040
A +2.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs The Citadel | L | 41 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 9 | 12.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | L | 21 | 20.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Louisiana | L | 7 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Memphis | L | 8 | 24.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ North Texas | L | 10 | 28.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 38 | 17.3 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | vs Tulane | L | 31 | 16.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.