Charlotte’s points of margin at home and away
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Through Charlotte’s game on Oct 17, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Charlotte was 16.7 points under at home and 5.6 points over away over its last 25 games, 10 games against 12. The plain averages are -21.3 and -18.9, a difference of 2.3. Expected was 15.2 points higher at home than away. All 4 ranked opponents were away. Both top-10 opponents were away. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Charlotte’s −22.3 at home vs away over expected ranks 136th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Oct 17, 2026.
points of margin a game over expected
A −22.3 difference in points of margin over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −2.3 difference in points of margin at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | @ Navy | L | -34 | -16.3 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Memphis | L | -5 | -17.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2024 | vs Tulane | L | -31 | -15.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs South Florida | L | -35 | 1.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 12 | -1.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UAB | W | 2 | 5.7 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Appalachian State (neutral) | L | -23 | -3.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs North Carolina | L | -17 | -10.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsMMonmouth | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | vs Rice | L | -11 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2025 | @South Florida | L | -28 | -37.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Army | L | -17 | -24.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Temple | L | -35 | -6.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | -34 | -28.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ East Carolina | L | -26 | -30.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UTSA | L | -21 | -21.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | -32 | -45.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Tulane | L | -27 | -27.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs The Citadel | L | -2 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | -32 | -45.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Appalachian State | L | -5 | -13.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Louisiana | L | -27 | -9.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsMemphis | L | -51 | -10.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @North Texas | L | -40 | -18.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Temple | W | 7 | -15.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Monmouth, The Citadel have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 17.