Central Michigan’s total yards with Vaughn Blue and without Vaughn Blue
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 12.6 yards under with Vaughn Blue and 116.1 yards under without Vaughn Blue in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 311.1 and 162.0, a difference of 149.1. All 5 home games were with Vaughn Blue. All 6 day games were with Vaughn Blue.
Vaughn Blue, running back: 187 rushing yards, 43 carries and 5 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Vaughn Blue is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
total yards a game over expected
with Vaughn Blue
−12.6
without Vaughn Blue
−116.1
-1000100
plain
311.1
162.0
200300400
The games
with Vaughn Bluewithout Vaughn Blue
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 149 | 274.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 277 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 372 | 309.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 162 | 278.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 482 | 368.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 276 | 328.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 337 | 316.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 285 | 379.3 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan (neutral) | W | — | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 12.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 67% of the difference the model predicts.
- Colgate, Eastern Michigan have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.