Central Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Angel Flores and without Angel Flores
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 1.7 percentage points under with Angel Flores and 3.6 percentage points under without Angel Flores in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 35.8% and 34.6%, a difference of 1.1%. Expected was 1.3 percentage points lower with Angel Flores than without Angel Flores. All 3 night games were without Angel Flores.
Angel Flores, quarterback: 475 passing yards, 92 pass attempts and 54 completions in 7 games this season.
3 games without Angel Flores is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +2.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Angel Flores vs without Angel Flores is about what you’d expect.
A +1.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Angel Flores vs without Angel Flores is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 18.2% | 38.2% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 38.5% | 37.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 42.9% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 33.3% | 37.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 42.9% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 26.7% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 42.9% | 40.4% | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan (neutral) | W | — | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Colgate, Eastern Michigan have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.