Central Michigan’s points with Vaughn Blue and without Vaughn Blue
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 1.2 points under with Vaughn Blue and 11.2 points under without Vaughn Blue in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 20.0 and 3.0, a difference of 17.0. All 5 home games were with Vaughn Blue. All 6 day games were with Vaughn Blue. All 7 unranked opponents were with Vaughn Blue.
Vaughn Blue, running back: 187 rushing yards, 43 carries and 5 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Vaughn Blue is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Vaughn Blue
−1.2
without Vaughn Blue
−11.2
-10010
plain
20.0
3.0
10203040
The games
with Vaughn Bluewithout Vaughn Blue
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 7 | 15.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 13 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 24 | 19.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 3 | 14.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 41 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 14 | 23.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 14 | 20.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 27 | 26.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Colgate has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.