Central Michigan’s points with Brock Townsend and since Brock Townsend’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 3.5 points under with Brock Townsend and 9.1 points over since Brock Townsend’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 17.9 and 35.0, a difference of 17.1. All 5 home games were with Brock Townsend. All 3 away games were with Brock Townsend. All 6 day games were with Brock Townsend.
Brock Townsend, running back: 81 rushing yards, 15 carries and 8 receptions in 8 games this season.
One game since Brock Townsend’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Brock Townsend
−3.5
since Brock Townsend’s last game
+9.1
-10010
plain
17.9
35.0
10203040
The games
with Brock Townsendsince Brock Townsend’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 7 | 16.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 13 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 24 | 19.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 3 | 14.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 41 | 29.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 14 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 14 | 21.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 27 | 28.3 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan (neutral) | W | 35 | 25.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Colgate has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.