Central Michigan’s points of margin with Brock Townsend and without Brock Townsend
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 2.2 points under with Brock Townsend and 7.8 points over without Brock Townsend over its last 25 games, 19 games against 4. The plain averages are -3.7 and -1.3, a difference of 2.4. Expected was 5.0 points higher with Brock Townsend than without Brock Townsend. Both ranked opponents were with Brock Townsend. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Brock Townsend. All 9 nonconference games were with Brock Townsend.
Brock Townsend, running back: 499 rushing yards, 97 carries and 21 receptions in 20 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A −10.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Brock Townsend vs without Brock Townsend is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brock Townsend and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A −2.4 difference in points of margin with Brock Townsend vs without Brock Townsend is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Brock Townsend and it comes up 14 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Toledo | L | -27 | -13.3 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 2 | -6.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | -8 | -18.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 2 | -0.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | L | -28 | -22.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | -60 | -22.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 11 | 4.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | -6 | 8.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 21 | -2.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 25 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Michigan | L | -3 | -14.0 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Buffalo | W | 19 | 4.5 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Kent State | W | 12 | 2.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsToledo | L | -18 | -12.2 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | L | -27 | -15.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | -31 | -17.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 14 | -2.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | -49 | -32.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 24 | 13.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | -17 | 0.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsWestern Michigan | L | -7 | -1.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -1 | 8.0 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsEastern Michigan (neutral) | W | 28 | 2.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner, Colgate have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.