Central Michigan’s points of margin with Angel Flores and without Angel Flores
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 4.3 points under with Angel Flores and 0.0 points over without Angel Flores over its last 25 games, 5 games against 14. The plain averages are -7.2 and -2.3, a difference of 4.9. All 3 night games were without Angel Flores. All 3 games after a bye were without Angel Flores.
Angel Flores, quarterback: 670 passing yards, 120 pass attempts and 73 completions in 16 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Angel Flores
−4.3
without Angel Flores
+0.0
-20020
A −4.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Angel Flores vs without Angel Flores is about what you’d expect.
plain
-7.2
-2.3
-500
A −4.9 difference in points of margin with Angel Flores vs without Angel Flores is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Angel Floreswithout Angel Flores
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs Bowling Green | L | -10 | -12.5 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Toledo | L | -27 | -13.3 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 2 | -6.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | -8 | -18.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 2 | -0.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | L | -28 | -22.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | -60 | -22.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 11 | 4.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | -6 | 8.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Bowling Green | W | 21 | -2.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 25 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Michigan | L | -3 | -14.0 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Buffalo | W | 19 | 4.5 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Kent State | W | 12 | 2.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsToledo | L | -18 | -12.2 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | L | -27 | -15.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | -31 | -19.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 14 | -5.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | -49 | -35.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 24 | 10.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | -17 | -3.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsWestern Michigan | L | -7 | -4.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -1 | 4.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner, Colgate have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Angel Flores nor without Angel Flores: Angel Flores had no game for the team that season, and sit out.