Central Michigan’s points allowed with Vaughn Blue and without Vaughn Blue
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 0.9 points over with Vaughn Blue and 3.7 points under without Vaughn Blue over its last 25 games, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 22.1 and 29.5, a difference of 7.4. Expected was 10.0 points lower with Vaughn Blue than without Vaughn Blue. All 5 home games were with Vaughn Blue. All 6 day games were with Vaughn Blue.
Vaughn Blue, running back: 187 rushing yards, 43 carries and 5 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
2 games without Vaughn Blue is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A +4.7 difference in points allowed over expected with Vaughn Blue vs without Vaughn Blue is about what you’d expect.
A −7.4 difference in points allowed with Vaughn Blue vs without Vaughn Blue is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Toledo | L | 37 | 32.1 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 14 | 33.3 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | 24 | 29.3 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 14 | 27.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 45 | 35.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 63 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 13 | 24.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | 28 | 19.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 6 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 13 | 12.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Michigan | L | 24 | 24.8 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Buffalo | W | 19 | 18.7 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Kent State | W | 16 | 26.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsToledo | L | 21 | 28.3 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | L | 34 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 38 | 30.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 10 | 21.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 52 | 42.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 17 | 18.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 31 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsWestern Michigan | L | 21 | 22.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 28 | 21.6 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsEastern Michigan (neutral) | W | 7 | 24.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Colgate has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Vaughn Blue nor without Vaughn Blue: Vaughn Blue had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.