Central Michigan’s penalty yards after a bye and on a normal week
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 10.7 yards over after a bye and 4.0 yards under on a normal week over its last 25 games, 5 games against 15. The plain averages are 58.4 and 52.5, a difference of 5.9. Expected was 6.8 yards lower after a bye than on a normal week. Both ranked opponents were on a normal week. Both opponents outside the major colleges were on a normal week.
Central Michigan’s +14.7 after a bye vs on a normal week over expected ranks 11th of the 78 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
penalty yards a game over expected
A +14.7 difference in penalty yards over expected after a bye vs on a normal week is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up 9 times in 100.
A +5.9 difference in penalty yards after a bye vs on a normal week is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs Bowling Green | L | 75 | 50.2 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Toledo | L | 63 | 62.2 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 30 | 52.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | 66 | 53.5 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 33 | 59.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 75 | 59.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 6 | 49.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 73 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 45 | 55.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | 65 | 53.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Bowling Green | W | 74 | 47.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 50 | 46.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Michigan | L | 60 | 45.8 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Buffalo | W | 30 | 43.8 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Kent State | W | 29 | 50.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsToledo | L | 47 | 43.6 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | L | 46 | 46.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 84 | 57.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 62 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 40 | 59.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 36 | 62.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 77 | 54.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 36 | 56.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsWestern Michigan | L | 62 | 58.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 83 | 51.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.8 in 2024, minus 2.1 in 2025, minus 1.3 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% in 2024, 45% in 2025, 27% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Wagner, Colgate have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- 3 games in 2025 and 2026 are neither after a bye nor on a normal week, and sit out.