Central Michigan’s pass attempts with Vaughn Blue and without Vaughn Blue
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 3.7 pass attempts under with Vaughn Blue and 2.5 pass attempts under without Vaughn Blue in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 21.1 and 26.0, a difference of 4.9. All 5 home games were with Vaughn Blue. All 6 day games were with Vaughn Blue. All 7 unranked opponents were with Vaughn Blue.
Vaughn Blue, running back: 187 rushing yards, 43 carries and 5 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Vaughn Blue is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
with Vaughn Blue
−3.7
without Vaughn Blue
−2.5
-20-100
plain
21.1
26.0
102030
The games
with Vaughn Bluewithout Vaughn Blue
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 16 | 20.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 21 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 7 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 26 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 17 | 24.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 24 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 32 | 23.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 31 | 30.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Colgate has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.