Central Michigan’s carries with Vaughn Blue and without Vaughn Blue
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 2.1 carries over with Vaughn Blue and 7.2 carries under without Vaughn Blue over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 39.3 and 24.0, a difference of 15.3. All 5 home games were with Vaughn Blue. All 6 day games were with Vaughn Blue.
Vaughn Blue, running back: 187 rushing yards, 43 carries and 5 receptions in 7 of those 25 games, 16% of Central Michigan’s carries in those games.
One game without Vaughn Blue is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Vaughn Blue
+2.1
without Vaughn Blue
−7.2
-1001020
plain
39.3
24.0
304050
The games
with Vaughn Bluewithout Vaughn Blue
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Toledo | L | 37 | 42.5 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 46 | 37.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | 31 | 36.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 50 | 37.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 40 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 31 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 48 | 39.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | 40 | 39.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 46 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 53 | 43.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Michigan | L | 33 | 36.7 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Buffalo | W | 31 | 47.8 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Kent State | W | 42 | 41.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsToledo | L | 36 | 38.7 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | L | 34 | 35.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 32 | 36.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 58 | 34.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 24 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 44 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 31 | 41.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsWestern Michigan | L | 40 | 38.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 29 | 34.6 | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | vsEastern Michigan (neutral) | W | — | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Colgate, Eastern Michigan have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Vaughn Blue nor without Vaughn Blue: Vaughn Blue had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.