Central Michigan’s carries with Jayden Clerveaux and without Jayden Clerveaux
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 0.5 carries over with Jayden Clerveaux and 1.9 carries over without Jayden Clerveaux over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.0 and 40.0, a difference of 3.0. All 3 away games were with Jayden Clerveaux. Both night games were with Jayden Clerveaux. All 4 nonconference games were with Jayden Clerveaux.
Jayden Clerveaux, running back: 271 rushing yards, 50 carries and 3 receptions in 7 of those 25 games, 19% of Central Michigan’s carries in those games.
One game without Jayden Clerveaux is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Jayden Clerveaux
+0.5
without Jayden Clerveaux
+1.9
-1001020
plain
37.0
40.0
304050
The games
with Jayden Clerveauxwithout Jayden Clerveaux
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs Bowling Green | L | 38 | 34.8 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Toledo | L | 37 | 42.5 | |
| Nov 19, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 46 | 37.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Northern Illinois | L | 31 | 36.4 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | @ San Jose State | W | 50 | 37.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 40 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 31 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsWWagner | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 48 | 39.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Akron | L | 40 | 39.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Bowling Green | W | 46 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 53 | 43.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Michigan | L | 33 | 36.7 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Buffalo | W | 31 | 47.8 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Kent State | W | 42 | 41.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsToledo | L | 36 | 38.7 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Northwestern (neutral) | L | 34 | 35.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 32 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 58 | 34.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 24 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 44 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 31 | 41.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsWestern Michigan | L | 40 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 29 | 34.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Colgate has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jayden Clerveaux nor without Jayden Clerveaux: Jayden Clerveaux had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.