Central Michigan’s carries with Angel Flores and without Angel Flores
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Central Michigan was 5.6 carries over with Angel Flores and 5.8 carries under without Angel Flores in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 42.8 and 28.3, a difference of 14.5. Both night games were without Angel Flores.
Angel Flores, quarterback: 475 passing yards, 92 pass attempts and 54 completions in 7 games this season, 47% of Central Michigan’s carries in those games.
3 games without Angel Flores is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +11.4 difference in carries over expected with Angel Flores vs without Angel Flores is about what you’d expect.
A +14.5 difference in carries with Angel Flores vs without Angel Flores is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Angel Flores and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ New Mexico | L | 32 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Colgate | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Wyoming | W | 58 | 34.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 24 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 44 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio | L | 31 | 41.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 40 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 29 | 34.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Colgate has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.