Buffalo’s third-down conversion rate with Terrance Shelton Jr. and without Terrance Shelton Jr.
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 5.4 percentage points under with Terrance Shelton Jr. and 0.5 percentage points over without Terrance Shelton Jr. over its last 25 games, 13 games against 9. The plain averages are 33.9% and 38.4%, a difference of 4.5%. Both night games were with Terrance Shelton Jr.. All 3 games after a bye were with Terrance Shelton Jr..
Terrance Shelton Jr., running back: 324 rushing yards, 81 carries and 12 receptions in 15 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −6.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Terrance Shelton Jr. vs without Terrance Shelton Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A −4.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Terrance Shelton Jr. vs without Terrance Shelton Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Akron | W | 23.1% | 36.6% | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Ball State | W | 33.3% | 43.4% | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 37.5% | 35.7% | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Kent State | W | 60.0% | 39.3% | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Liberty (neutral) | W | 31.6% | 36.3% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 9.1% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 64.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Kent State | W | 33.3% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 35.3% | 31.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 26.7% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsEastern Michigan | W | 46.7% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 37.5% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsAkron | L | 16.7% | 34.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 23.1% | 32.3% | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 38.9% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 33.3% | 38.4% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | L | 41.7% | 28.5% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 47.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 23.5% | 36.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 7.1% | 32.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 52.6% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 35.7% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 38.1% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUMass | W | 42.1% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBowling Green | W | 53.3% | 37.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- St. Francis (PA), UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.