Buffalo’s third-down conversion rate with Nino Hill and without Nino Hill
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 1.7 percentage points under with Nino Hill and 12.5 percentage points under without Nino Hill over its last 25 games, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 39.5% and 23.5%, a difference of 16.0%. All 5 home games were with Nino Hill. All 6 day games were with Nino Hill. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Nino Hill.
Nino Hill, running back: 202 rushing yards and 63 carries in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Nino Hill is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Nino Hill
−1.7%
without Nino Hill
−12.5%
-20%0%
plain
39.5%
23.5%
20%40%
The games
with Nino Hillwithout Nino Hill
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Akron | W | 23.1% | 36.6% | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Ball State | W | 33.3% | 43.4% | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 37.5% | 35.7% | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Kent State | W | 60.0% | 39.3% | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Liberty (neutral) | W | 31.6% | 36.3% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 9.1% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 64.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Kent State | W | 33.3% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 35.3% | 31.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 26.7% | 32.4% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsEastern Michigan | W | 46.7% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 37.5% | 39.4% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsAkron | L | 16.7% | 34.1% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 23.1% | 32.3% | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 38.9% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 33.3% | 38.4% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | L | 41.7% | 28.5% | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 47.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 23.5% | 36.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 7.1% | 32.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 52.6% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 35.7% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 38.1% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUMass | W | 42.1% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBowling Green | W | 53.3% | 37.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Nino Hill nor without Nino Hill: Nino Hill had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.