Buffalo’s third-down conversion rate with Clint Walker and since Clint Walker’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 3.5 percentage points under with Clint Walker and 2.1 percentage points over since Clint Walker’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 37.5% and 42.9%, a difference of 5.3%. All 5 home games were with Clint Walker. All 6 day games were with Clint Walker. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Clint Walker.
Clint Walker, tight end: 195 receiving yards and 22 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Clint Walker’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Clint Walker
−3.5%
since Clint Walker’s last game
+2.1%
-20%0%
plain
37.5%
42.9%
20%40%
The games
with Clint Walkersince Clint Walker’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 47.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 23.5% | 36.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 7.1% | 32.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 52.6% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 35.7% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 38.1% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UMass | W | 42.1% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 53.3% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 42.9% | 40.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.