Buffalo’s points of margin with Nino Hill and without Nino Hill
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 0.1 points under with Nino Hill and 2.7 points under without Nino Hill over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are -1.3 and -5.0, a difference of 3.7. All 5 home games were with Nino Hill. All 6 day games were with Nino Hill. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Nino Hill.
Nino Hill, running back: 202 rushing yards and 63 carries in 7 of those 25 games.
2 games without Nino Hill is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +2.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Nino Hill vs without Nino Hill is about what you’d expect.
A +3.7 difference in points of margin with Nino Hill vs without Nino Hill is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Ball State | W | 3 | 14.3 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 17 | 0.4 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Kent State | W | 36 | 22.4 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Liberty (neutral) | W | 19 | -0.8 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | -13 | -20.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Kent State | W | 3 | -0.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Troy | L | -4 | -3.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UConn | L | -3 | -7.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsEastern Michigan | W | 1 | 1.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 7 | 16.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Akron | L | -8 | 11.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 25 | -8.2 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | -19 | -4.5 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | -17 | -3.5 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | L | -5 | -10.1 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 4 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | -13 | -2.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | -42 | -17.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 3 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | -3 | -3.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 15 | -15.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUMass | W | 7 | 10.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBowling Green | W | 7 | 11.2 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @Miami (OH) | W | 3 | -2.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Nino Hill nor without Nino Hill: Nino Hill had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.