Buffalo’s penalty yards with Nino Hill and without Nino Hill
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 20.3 yards under with Nino Hill and 7.8 yards under without Nino Hill in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 50.0 and 42.5, a difference of 7.5. All 5 home games were with Nino Hill. All 6 day games were with Nino Hill. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Nino Hill.
Nino Hill, running back: 202 rushing yards and 63 carries in 7 games this season.
2 games without Nino Hill is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
penalty yards a game over expected
A −12.4 difference in penalty yards over expected with Nino Hill vs without Nino Hill is about what you’d expect.
A +7.5 difference in penalty yards with Nino Hill vs without Nino Hill is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 119 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 29 | 52.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 30 | 48.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 80 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 62 | 50.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 27 | 48.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UMass | W | 32 | 54.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 0 | 51.2 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | @ Miami (OH) | W | 56 | 48.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 27% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.