Buffalo’s carries with Nino Hill and without Nino Hill
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 4.9 carries over with Nino Hill and 13.5 carries under without Nino Hill in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 43.9 and 25.0, a difference of 18.9. All 5 home games were with Nino Hill. All 6 day games were with Nino Hill. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Nino Hill.
Nino Hill, running back: 202 rushing yards and 63 carries in 7 games this season, 21% of Buffalo’s carries in those games.
One game without Nino Hill is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Nino Hill
+4.9
without Nino Hill
−13.5
-10010
plain
43.9
25.0
30405060
The games
with Nino Hillwithout Nino Hill
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 25 | 38.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 38 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 62 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 47 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 45 | 38.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs UMass | W | 44 | 40.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | W | 41 | 41.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.