Buffalo’s carries with Jason Wright and without Jason Wright
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Buffalo was 1.8 carries over with Jason Wright and 0.9 carries under without Jason Wright over its last 25 games, 6 games against 11. The plain averages are 43.1 and 34.1, a difference of 9.1. Both games after a bye were without Jason Wright.
Jason Wright, quarterback: 987 passing yards, 185 pass attempts and 92 completions in 10 of those 25 games, 18% of Buffalo’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Jason Wright
+1.8
without Jason Wright
−0.9
-10010
A +2.7 difference in carries over expected with Jason Wright vs without Jason Wright is about what you’d expect.
plain
43.1
34.1
30405060
A +9.1 difference in carries with Jason Wright vs without Jason Wright is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jason Wright and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
with Jason Wrightwithout Jason Wright
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Akron | W | 42 | 39.3 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Ball State | W | 40 | 35.5 | |
| Nov 20, 2024 | @ Eastern Michigan | W | 40 | 37.4 | |
| Nov 26, 2024 | vs Kent State | W | 52 | 43.5 | |
| Jan 4, 2025 | vs Liberty (neutral) | W | 51 | 38.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 24 | 30.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSt. Francis (PA) | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @Kent State | W | 29 | 36.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Troy | L | 34 | 33.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UConn | L | 42 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsEastern Michigan | W | 31 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 30 | 38.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vsAkron | L | 34 | 32.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Bowling Green | W | 27 | 31.7 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | @ Central Michigan | L | 34 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 33 | 30.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs Ohio | L | 32 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsUUAlbany | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 25 | 38.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | 38 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsRRobert Morris | W | 62 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 47 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Toledo | W | 45 | 38.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsUMass | W | 44 | 40.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsBowling Green | W | 41 | 41.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- St. Francis (PA), UAlbany, Robert Morris have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Jason Wright nor without Jason Wright: Jason Wright had no game for the team that season, and sit out.