Bowling Green’s total yards at home and away
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Through Bowling Green’s game on Oct 3, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bowling Green was 69.0 yards under at home and 3.1 yards over away over its last 25 games, 10 games against 12. The plain averages are 294.2 and 330.6, a difference of 36.4. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Bowling Green’s −72.2 at home vs away over expected ranks 136th of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Oct 3, 2026.
total yards a game over expected
A −72.2 difference in total yards over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −36.4 difference in total yards at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2024 | vs Northern Illinois | L | 205 | 320.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | vs Kent State | W | 440 | 491.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Toledo | W | 402 | 350.4 | |
| Nov 5, 2024 | @ Central Michigan | W | 389 | 364.7 | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 404 | 424.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Ball State | W | 365 | 451.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 261 | 348.8 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Arkansas State (neutral) | L | 479 | 421.6 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Lafayette | W | 268 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 372 | 294.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 310 | 330.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 321 | 207.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | 350 | 285.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vsToledo | W | 249 | 266.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsCentral Michigan | L | 310 | 328.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Kent State | L | 379 | 368.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Buffalo | L | 217 | 362.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Eastern Michigan | L | 259 | 378.7 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Akron | L | 273 | 392.6 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 408 | 376.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTTarleton State | L | 386 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 169 | 243.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 188 | 290.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | 207 | 299.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Miami (OH) | W | 365 | 316.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 6.1 in 2024, plus 7.7 in 2025, plus 12.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% in 2024, 79% in 2025, 67% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Lafayette, Tarleton State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Nov 4, 2026; the games are the ones through Oct 3.