Bowling Green’s total yards at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Bowling Green was 63.0 yards under at home and 3.0 yards under away over its last 25 games, 9 games against 12. The plain averages are 296.1 and 315.9, a difference of 19.8. Expected was 26.7 yards higher at home than away. All 3 opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Bowling Green’s −60.0 at home vs away over expected ranks 133rd of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
total yards a game over expected
at home
−63.0
away
−3.0
-1000100
A −60.0 difference in total yards over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
plain
296.1
315.9
200300400
A −19.8 difference in total yards at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | total yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | vs Western Michigan | W | 404 | 424.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Ball State | W | 365 | 451.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 261 | 348.8 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Arkansas State (neutral) | L | 479 | 421.6 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vs Lafayette | W | 268 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 372 | 294.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 310 | 330.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Louisville | L | 321 | 207.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Ohio | L | 350 | 285.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Toledo | W | 249 | 266.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | L | 310 | 328.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Kent State | L | 379 | 368.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Buffalo | L | 217 | 362.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Eastern Michigan | L | 259 | 378.7 | |
| Nov 18, 2025 | vs Akron | L | 273 | 392.6 | |
| Nov 25, 2025 | @ UMass | W | 408 | 376.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsTTarleton State | L | 386 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 169 | 243.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 188 | 290.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs South Florida | L | 207 | 299.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Miami (OH) | W | 365 | 316.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 355 | — | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsBall State | L | 313 | 357.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Buffalo | L | 341 | 323.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Western Michigan | L | 274 | 289.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 6.1 in 2024, plus 7.7 in 2025, plus 12.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% in 2024, 79% in 2025, 67% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Lafayette, Tarleton State, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.