Baylor’s third-down conversion rate with DJ Lagway and without DJ Lagway
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Baylor was 0.5 percentage points over with DJ Lagway and 5.0 percentage points under without DJ Lagway over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.8% and 47.8%, a difference of 9.0%. All 3 away games were with DJ Lagway. All 5 conference games were with DJ Lagway.
DJ Lagway, quarterback: 1,671 passing yards, 242 pass attempts and 129 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without DJ Lagway is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with DJ Lagway
+0.5%
without DJ Lagway
−5.0%
-10%0%10%20%
plain
38.8%
47.8%
30%40%50%60%
A −9.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with DJ Lagway vs without DJ Lagway is about what you’d expect.
The games
with DJ Lagwaywithout DJ Lagway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs TCU | W | 53.3% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ West Virginia | W | 61.5% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Houston | W | 26.7% | 39.5% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Kansas | W | 76.5% | 38.7% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs LSU (neutral) | L | 38.5% | 39.6% | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Auburn | L | 33.3% | 36.0% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ SMU | W | 44.4% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Samford | W | 30.8% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Arizona State | L | 41.7% | 37.4% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 50.0% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kansas State | W | 33.3% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @TCU | L | 35.3% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | 33.3% | 42.0% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 47.1% | 38.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Utah | L | 29.4% | 38.0% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 41.2% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsHouston | L | 27.3% | 41.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAuburn (neutral) | L | 31.8% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 38.5% | 43.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 35.3% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Arizona State | W | 60.0% | 33.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsTCU | L | 28.6% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kansas | L | 33.3% | 38.1% | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @UCF | W | 43.8% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Prairie View A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with DJ Lagway nor without DJ Lagway: DJ Lagway had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.