Baylor’s points of margin with DJ Lagway and without DJ Lagway
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Baylor was 2.4 points over with DJ Lagway and 3.2 points over without DJ Lagway over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 10.8 and 29.0, a difference of 18.2. All 3 away games were with DJ Lagway. All 5 conference games were with DJ Lagway.
DJ Lagway, quarterback: 1,671 passing yards, 242 pass attempts and 129 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games without DJ Lagway is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with DJ Lagway
+2.4
without DJ Lagway
+3.2
-20020
plain
10.8
29.0
02040
A −18.2 difference in points of margin with DJ Lagway vs without DJ Lagway is about what you’d expect.
The games
with DJ Lagwaywithout DJ Lagway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs TCU | W | 3 | 4.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ West Virginia | W | 14 | 5.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Houston | W | 10 | 9.2 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Kansas | W | 28 | -1.7 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs LSU (neutral) | L | -13 | -2.9 | |
| Aug 29, 2025 | vs Auburn | L | -14 | -2.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ SMU | W | 3 | -15.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Samford | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Arizona State | L | -3 | -1.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Oklahoma State | W | 18 | 11.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kansas State | W | 1 | -4.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @TCU | L | -6 | -10.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Cincinnati | L | -21 | -0.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs UCF | W | 27 | 2.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Utah | L | -27 | -15.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | -24 | -10.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsHouston | L | -7 | 0.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsAuburn (neutral) | L | -1 | 4.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 41 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 17 | 13.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 10 | 21.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Arizona State | W | 36 | 3.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsTCU | L | -11 | 16.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Kansas | L | -1 | 6.2 | |
| Oct 30, 2026 | @UCF | W | 32 | -1.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Prairie View A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with DJ Lagway nor without DJ Lagway: DJ Lagway had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.