Ball State’s third-down conversion rate with Tyler Mizzell and without Tyler Mizzell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 1.2 percentage points under with Tyler Mizzell and 6.3 percentage points under without Tyler Mizzell over its last 25 games, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 35.7% and 33.8%, a difference of 1.9%. All 3 home games were without Tyler Mizzell. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Tyler Mizzell. All 4 nonconference games were without Tyler Mizzell.
Tyler Mizzell, quarterback: 260 passing yards, 38 pass attempts and 23 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
One game with Tyler Mizzell is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Tyler Mizzell
−1.2%
without Tyler Mizzell
−6.3%
-20%-10%0%
plain
35.7%
33.8%
20%40%60%
The games
with Tyler Mizzellwithout Tyler Mizzell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 55.6% | 30.4% | |
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 33.3% | 42.5% | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Buffalo | L | 40.0% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Bowling Green | L | 33.3% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ohio | L | 61.1% | 36.9% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Purdue | L | 30.8% | 29.7% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Auburn | L | 7.1% | 28.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs New Hampshire | W | 70.0% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UConn | L | 33.3% | 32.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsOhio | W | 45.0% | 30.1% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | L | 7.7% | 32.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Akron | W | 30.8% | 34.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Northern Illinois | L | 40.0% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 29.4% | 42.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 35.7% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | 36.8% | 29.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Miami (OH) | L | 38.5% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 21.4% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 11.1% | 33.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Kent State | L | 35.7% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsToledo | L | 41.7% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 29.4% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Bowling Green | W | 41.7% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 61.5% | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Stony Brook, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Tyler Mizzell nor without Tyler Mizzell: Tyler Mizzell had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.