Ball State’s third-down conversion rate with Keldric Luster and without Keldric Luster
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 6.3 percentage points under with Keldric Luster and 1.2 percentage points under without Keldric Luster in 2026, 5 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.8% and 35.7%, a difference of 1.9%. All 3 home games were with Keldric Luster. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Keldric Luster. All 4 nonconference games were with Keldric Luster.
Keldric Luster, quarterback: 1,300 passing yards, 211 pass attempts and 133 completions in 7 games this season.
One game without Keldric Luster is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Keldric Luster
−6.3%
without Keldric Luster
−1.2%
-20%-10%0%
plain
33.8%
35.7%
20%40%60%
The games
with Keldric Lusterwithout Keldric Luster
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 21.4% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 11.1% | 33.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | 35.7% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 41.7% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 29.4% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 41.7% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 61.5% | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Stony Brook, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.