Ball State’s third-down conversion rate with Jalen Bonds and without Jalen Bonds
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 4.2 percentage points under with Jalen Bonds and 4.5 percentage points under without Jalen Bonds over its last 25 games, 7 games against 10. The plain averages are 34.7% and 33.2%, a difference of 1.5%. Expected was 1.7 percentage points higher with Jalen Bonds than without Jalen Bonds.
Jalen Bonds, running back: 301 rushing yards, 74 carries and 12 receptions in 9 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Jalen Bonds
−4.2%
without Jalen Bonds
−4.5%
-20%-10%0%10%
A +0.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jalen Bonds vs without Jalen Bonds is about what you’d expect.
plain
34.7%
33.2%
20%40%60%
A +1.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jalen Bonds vs without Jalen Bonds is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jalen Bondswithout Jalen Bonds
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2024 | vs Miami (OH) | L | 33.3% | 42.5% | |
| Nov 12, 2024 | @ Buffalo | L | 40.0% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Bowling Green | L | 33.3% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ohio | L | 61.1% | 36.9% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Purdue | L | 30.8% | 29.7% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Auburn | L | 7.1% | 28.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs New Hampshire | W | 70.0% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UConn | L | 33.3% | 32.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsOhio | W | 45.0% | 30.1% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Western Michigan | L | 7.7% | 32.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Akron | W | 30.8% | 34.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | L | 40.0% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 5, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 29.4% | 42.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | L | 35.7% | 39.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Toledo | L | 36.8% | 29.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Miami (OH) | L | 38.5% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 21.4% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 11.1% | 33.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Kent State | L | 35.7% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsToledo | L | 41.7% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 29.4% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Bowling Green | W | 41.7% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 61.5% | — | |
| Nov 4, 2026 | @ UMass | L | — | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- New Hampshire, Stony Brook, Sacramento State, UMass have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 21 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Jalen Bonds nor without Jalen Bonds: Jalen Bonds had no game for the team that season, and sit out.