Ball State’s third-down conversion rate with Jalen Bonds and without Jalen Bonds
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ball State was 8.0 percentage points under with Jalen Bonds and 0.3 percentage points under without Jalen Bonds in 2026, 4 games against 2. The plain averages are 33.6% and 35.5%, a difference of 2.0%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jalen Bonds. All 4 first-half games were with Jalen Bonds.
Jalen Bonds, running back: 224 rushing yards, 47 carries and 10 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Jalen Bonds is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −7.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jalen Bonds vs without Jalen Bonds is about what you’d expect.
A −2.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jalen Bonds vs without Jalen Bonds is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 21.4% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsSStony Brook | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Liberty | L | 11.1% | 33.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Kent State | L | 35.7% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Toledo | L | 41.7% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 29.4% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Bowling Green | W | 41.7% | 35.4% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSSacramento State | W | 61.5% | — |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stony Brook, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.